25 October 2026, as the history books will tell it on 25 October 2036.

In October 2026 the pressure in the war in Ukraine changed direction. By mid-month the US had eased sanctions on Russian diesel and waived the main measures of a new sanctions law, and President Trump said: “I think it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president.”^1,2,3,4,5,6 An ‘energy ceasefire’ he announced on 11 October did not stop Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities.^7,8

After US envoy Steve Witkoff met Vladimir Putin on 21 October, the Kremlin said Russia was willing to resume three-way talks with the US and Ukraine in November; President Zelensky backed this.^9,10,11,12 Within hours, Russian missiles and drones struck Kyiv and other regions, killing at least four people, according to Ukrainian officials.^10,13,14,15 On 23 October the White House announced a ceasefire for the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky alone, to let aid in and civilians out; Russia and Ukraine then said it would begin on 27 October.^16,17,18,19

Moscow drew the lesson that would shape the rest of the decade: keep fighting, and the concessions will come.

On 10 October 2025 a ceasefire took effect in Gaza.^1,3 Even so, by 20 October 2026 more than 1,500 Palestinians had been killed since it took effect, according to the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza; its toll since the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023 stood at more than 74,000.^2,3,4,5,6 On 23 October, after gunmen killed two Israeli soldiers near Hebron, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the army to prepare a full closure of the occupied West Bank and threatened a major offensive there. The next day Israeli troops began an operation in Hebron, sealing off the city, demolishing buildings and forcing families from their homes.^7,8,9,10,11

Reconstruction never began, because no one wanted to pay for what might be destroyed again, and without a political solution radicalisation grew on both sides.

On 9 October 2026, hours after the former International Criminal Court judge Navi Pillay won the Nobel Peace Prize, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on the court itself, with a six-month grace period for many transactions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared: “Either the ICC will end its threats, or we will end the ICC.”^1,2,3,4,5 On 22 October the European Parliament awarded its Sakharov Prize to the court and its staff.^10,11,12

In the history books of 2036, the verdict is harsh: prizes did not protect the court. Trump had already urged member states at the UN General Assembly on 22 September 2026 to “resign from this rogue institution immediately”.^6,7 The next day Nauru announced that it would leave the court.^8,9 When the grace period expired in April 2027, banks and suppliers pulled out and the court was largely paralysed.

With that, the last place where leaders could be held to account for war crimes disappeared. What that meant can be seen in Sudan (§ 4.1).

After US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz; from 13 April the US blockaded Iranian ports.^1,2,3,4 In July, after attacks on merchant ships, Trump declared the interim ceasefire over.^5,6 On 20 October, according to Iranian state television, Iran’s security chief said no enriched uranium would leave the country and ruled out talks with the US until its conditions were met.^7,8 The next day the US sanctioned firms that it said helped Iran’s ‘shadow fleet’ of oil tankers. On 23 October Brent crude oil closed at almost 117 dollars a barrel, its highest level in months.^9,10,11,12 Iran’s Revolutionary Guards threatened to strike US bases if the US kept escorting ships through the strait, and the US began cutting embassy staff in the region after an intelligence memo warned that Iran had stepped up efforts to target US personnel.^13,14,15,16

Governments subsidised fossil fuels to head off unrest and put off the energy transition year after year (§ 5.1).

On 13 October 2026 the IMF projected global growth of 3.1 per cent for 2026 and global inflation of 4.7 per cent. That forecast assumed oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would resume by March 2027.^1,2 They did not, and inflation stayed high.

The IMF also found that just 32 economies accounted for 95 per cent of global growth, down from 54 in April. It warned of an AI-related stock market correction, rising government bond yields and high public debt.^1,2 According to the IMF, low-income countries were spending 14 per cent of their government revenue on debt payments, up from 6 per cent a decade earlier.^3,4 The warnings came true: a market correction hit pensions, and indebted governments could not step in.

On 26 October 2025 the RSF militia took the Sudanese city of El Fasher; days later the IPC, the international hunger classification system, confirmed famine there and in Kadugli.^1,2,3,4,5 On 12 October 2026 the IPC warned of a growing risk of famine in Darfur and Kordofan, driven by war, displacement and drought.^6,7 In the first three weeks of October 2026 drone strikes killed at least 306 people, according to the UN human rights office. On 19 October a drone strike on a market in Abyei, an area disputed between Sudan and South Sudan, killed at least 153 people, according to local officials, who blamed Sudan’s army.^8,9,12,13 On 21 October 22 countries meeting in Geneva urged outside powers to stop supplying drones, fighters and money to Sudan’s warring parties, but no ceasefire was agreed.^10,11

Because the International Criminal Court was being strangled at the same time (§ 2.1), no one was put on trial for starving whole cities. The history books of 2036 call Sudan the crisis the world watched and allowed to happen.

The UN World Food Programme projected that 318 million people would face crisis-level hunger or worse in 2026 and said that because of funding cuts it could help only about a third of them. The US, the largest donor, and others cut their aid.^1,2,3

What that meant became clear in Gaza (§ 1.2). On 19 October 2026 the WFP said that, for lack of funding, it was cutting food aid there by about a third, leaving 500,000 people without monthly support.^7,8,9

Rich countries shifted even more money to defence and energy (§ 1.1, § 3.1), and those left without help took to the road. In early October 2026 an overcrowded migrant boat bound for Yemen capsized off Djibouti; at least 139 people died, 15 of them children, according to the UN migration agency IOM.^4,5,6

In May 2026 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an Ebola outbreak in eastern Congo, caused by the Bundibugyo strain, a global health emergency. There is no approved vaccine or treatment for this strain.^1,2,3 newIn late October a trial of candidate vaccines against it began in Congo.^22,23 By 21 October Congo had recorded more than 9,700 confirmed infections and nearly 4,700 deaths, according to the WHO and the US CDC: the second-largest Ebola outbreak on record. It also spread to Kenya and, earlier, Uganda; on 20 October Nigeria became the fifth country to detect it, and two days later the WHO called it a regional concern.^{4,5,6,12,13,14,15,18,19,20,21,22}

newUganda closed its border with Congo in May. The US admitted travellers from Congo only after 21 days outside the country and, from 3 November, will require every incoming air passenger to declare they have not been there. The WHO advised against closing borders.^{1,4,7,8,10,11,24,25} The WHO reported serious funding gaps, and in October the African Union’s health agency said more than 700 million dollars in response funds in Congo could not be accounted for.^7,9,16,17

Faced with the choice between closing borders and paying for the response, the world mostly chose the former, and the virus kept circulating well into 2027.

The COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Türkiye, from 9 to 20 November 2026, was to focus on turning climate goals into action.^1,2 In October the World Meteorological Organization and the Copernicus climate service reported a rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Pacific sea temperatures up to 3.8 degrees above average. On 21 October the UN warned that about 50 million people could face more hunger.^{3,4,8,9,10,11} The same day the UN Environment Programme calculated that the world was heading for 2.6 degrees of warming by 2100 under current pledges, and 2.8 degrees under current policies: worse than a year earlier, partly because the US had left the Paris Agreement.^5,6,7

With the summit held in the middle of the fuel crisis (§ 3.1), short-term concerns won out and targets stayed on paper.